The Coalition has moved a substantial manner on local weather and vitality since Scott Morrisson introduced a lump of coal into the parliament and advised us to not be afraid. On Friday, the Coalition lastly launched the long-awaited particulars of the nuclear plan it can take to the election and, as soon as once more, asks us to not be afraid – of the worth tag, the upper local weather air pollution and a variety of different variables.
Nonetheless, regardless of a intelligent comms technique, there are important credibility points across the assumptions on which the fee estimates are based mostly, and there are different vital points which were left unanswered. Australians have a proper to think about all the problems they’re being requested to vote on, with information reasonably than political rhetoric. These points may be broadly listed underneath three headings: the economics, the setting and the regulation.
The Coalition makes the purpose that many nations use nuclear energy. It’s true that 9% of worldwide vitality capability comes from nuclear energy, which the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) estimates might enhance to about 11% if and when deliberate tasks come on-line. However the world is voting with its ft, with the IEA reporting that world wide 560GW of latest renewable energy was put in in 2023, in contrast with 7.1GW of latest nuclear. At COP29 in Baku this yr, the conversations weren’t about whether or not to spend money on renewables, however methods to roll them out sooner.
The first motive the world will not be embracing nuclear vitality on a grand scale is easy: price (though in Japan’s case, it’s additionally about security).
The Frontier Economics report, which the Coalition is utilizing to make its case, is written in an opaque manner that makes direct comparisons tough. Primarily, the report admits that the capital price of nuclear is $10,000/kW, whereas photo voltaic and wind are $1,800 and $2,500 respectively.
So how is it that the Coalition’s modelling suggests {that a} world the place nuclear makes up greater than a 3rd of the east coast vitality grid might probably be cheaper?
It’s simple to provide you with the reply you need if you base your modelling on rubbery assumptions.
Firstly, we should always recognize that even a $10,000/kW estimate for nuclear is significantly optimistic if we take a look at the expertise of comparable nations over the previous decade. The price on the off-cited Hinkley C plant within the UK has, up to now, risen to $27,515/okW. Three others – France (Flamanville 3), Finland (Olkilutoto 3) and the US (Vogtle) – are between $15,000 and $16,900.
Delays have been a key think about driving up the price of nuclear energy. The longer it takes to construct and function a plant, the upper the price of finance. The Coalition believes we are able to overturn nationwide and state laws and purchase land and planning approvals nearly in a single day. After which we’ll simply set up an ‘off-the-shelf’ nuclear energy plant, able to run.
By its personal admission, having to tweak nuclear energy vegetation so that they function at most security and effectivity can blow out construct occasions and prices. It beggars perception that the Coalition claims Australia, which has no nuclear vitality functionality, might ship, construct and combine into the grid with no challenges, with a 50,000-strong nuclear workforce showing by magic.
There isn’t a point out of the prices of extending the lifetime of present ageing coal-fired energy stations, or the probability that these vegetation will more and more fail as they attain end-of-life, elevating vitality prices as provide falls quick and, more and more, the probability of blackouts. And, apparently, nuclear waste may be transported and saved with out price.
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The Coalition additionally argues that, as a result of wind and photo voltaic vitality usually are not all the time “on”, we’ll must construct much more capability, together with transmission and storage. It calls this “overbuild”, however its assumptions have overegged what that want may realistically appear like, particularly as battery storage turns into cheaper over time (in contrast to the expertise of nuclear) and of longer length.
Lastly, to reach at these rose-tinted prices, the Coalition has needed to reduce on estimates of the quantity of vitality we’ll demand over the following 20 years by virtually half what the Australian Power Market Operator says we’d like. That’s as a result of it’s assumed we gained’t fear about EVs or electrification. Because of this the Coalition will undo Australia’s 2030 43% emissions discount goal, which we’re set to get very near, taking us again to our Morrison-era standing of worldwide local weather pariah.
And that is the kicker. Underneath the Coalition’s plan, our modelling reveals Australia’s home emissions will rise by round one billion – sure billion – tonnes, at a value of $240bn to the economic system, society and setting, based mostly on Infrastructure Australia’s price of carbon methodology.
The Coalition’s observe document on local weather and vitality has all the time been poor. On this newest iteration supporting nuclear energy, its credentials have been additional diminished on local weather, vitality and the economic system.