The UFC’s middleweight division takes heart stage for the fourth time this 12 months, as Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze sq. off in the principle occasion at UFC Combat Night time on Saturday on the UFC Apex in Las Vegas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelim at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).
Vettori, unranked by ESPN, is competing for the primary time since June 2023. He has misplaced three of his final 5 fights. Dolidze, ESPN’s No. 10 ranked middleweight, enters the struggle using a two struggle successful streak, following wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland in 2024.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Fortis MMA coach Sayif Saud to get his perspective on the principle occasion. ESPN betting professional Ian Parker provides perception and evaluation on the principle occasion and different intriguing bets he likes on the cardboard.
Editor’s be aware: Responses have been edited for brevity and readability.
Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA coach
How Vettori wins: Vettori has been within the Octagon with a few of the greatest within the sport. He hasn’t at all times come out on high, however he by no means will get completed and he is already crushed Dolidze as soon as (a unanimous determination win in 2023). So, you work his confidence is excessive going into this struggle. Vetori, 31, goes to look to maintain Dolidze, 36, at vary together with his standup, and if he can try this for 5 rounds and never enable Dolidze to take him down and management him for stretches of time, he’ll win.
How Dolidze wins: Dolidze is coming into his personal proper now. I do not know if it is simply because he is getting older, or if he wanted to string collectively a number of wins, however he isn’t the identical fighter he was once they fought two years in the past. He nonetheless depends on his grappling, although, and whereas he is received a protracted attain, he prefers to make use of his arms to get near folks and get them down. He is an enormous, highly effective man for the division, however so is Vettori. Dolidze must keep in mind that judges are scoring fully on harm. He would possibly management Vettori within the clinch or take him to the bottom, but when Vettori lands a number of combos on the ft, he would possibly steal some rounds. And since Vettori is so sturdy, you must take into account the struggle going to the scorecards. So, it’s vital that Dolidze feels comfy sufficient to attain a bit and look comfy on the ft within the judges’ eyes.
X issue: Which Vettori exhibits up? He is been out for some time, and he is switched up his coaching. Possibly he turns up with a wholly new talent set. And for Dolidze, can he rating factors and create harm together with his model, and never rely an excessive amount of on management.
Prediction: This can be a battle of wills, as near a coin-flip struggle as you may get.
Betting evaluation
Odds correct as of publication. For probably the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.
Parker: Vettori to win (-150). Of their first struggle, Vettori received the win by way of determination and I see the identical outcome occurring once more. On the bottom, Dolidze is the stronger jiu-jitsu practitioner however not the stronger wrestler, so do not anticipate him to get Vettori on the canvas. On the ft, Vettori is the higher striker and has proven unbelievable sturdiness all through his profession. Though Dolidze does carry knockout energy, his strikes are predictable and Vettori ought to have the velocity benefit to keep away from the facility and earn one other determination win.
Parker’s greatest bets on the remainder of the cardboard
Light-weight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Hernandez to win (-200). Holobaugh is a seasoned vet and he’s as powerful as they arrive, nevertheless Hernandez is healthier all over the place this struggle might go. So long as Hernandez would not enable Holobaugh to dictate the tempo early on, Hernandez ought to be capable of make the most of his placing to arrange his wrestling and get the win.
Featherweight: SeungWoo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos
Vallejos to win inside the space. Vallejos takes on the at all times thrilling Choi who can be on the lookout for a KO. Vallejos is a close to 5-to-1 favourite and I perceive why. He is a blue chip prospect whereas Choi has been KO’d in two of his final three fights.
Anticipate Vallejos to get a knockout win right here and add to his 71% knockout charge. Choi could have some moments, as he likes to swing for the fence to land an enormous shot. Nonetheless, when he does that, he retains his arms low and chin excessive which is a recipe to get knocked out.
Heavyweight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
Over 1.5 rounds (-175). Cortes-Acosta is getting his hardest opponent up to now in Spann. Cortes-Acosta has a powerful proper hand and good cardio, however for those who put him on his again, he has no solutions within the jiu-itsu division. The query is: Which Spann are we getting on this struggle? He has all of the instruments to be a high 10 fighter within the division, however when it is time to present up, Spann would not. Coming off his final win the place he submitted Ovince Saint Preux, I want to suppose Spann realizes that his wrestling and submission sport is what can win him this struggle in opposition to a striker. As a result of sturdiness of Cortes-Acosta and the seemingly takedown makes an attempt by Spann early on, I consider this struggle will go over the 1.5 spherical mark earlier than we see a winner.