Fantasy Soccer: begin/sit Kyler Murray, Adam Thielen

Fantasy soccer is a ardour for a lot of. Typically that keenness causes fantasy managers to make emotional selections even when the information suggests in any other case. Every week through the 2023 NFL season Liz Loza will try to strike a stability between what the information states and what the center needs. That is known as Info vs. Emotions.

Does anybody truly take pleasure in packing? It appears as if there exists a specific form of particular person — doubtless a Virgo — who finds pleasure in conquering the organizational challenges offered by getting ready for an out-of-town tour. Somebody who possibly makes use of these “journey cubes” to neatly prepare their clothes and likewise makes lists (through an app, even) in order to not neglect any element. These are enviable traits. Not solely the hyperfocused strategy, but additionally the accompanying enthusiasm.

That’s not me. I detest having to map out my days, take into account all of the potential curveballs, after which neatly jam my earthly possessions right into a suitcase that weighs fewer than 50 kilos. There’s simply a lot to consider. From the climate to the footwear to the scale of the toiletries to the quite a few electronics (and coordinating chargers). Protecting all the things straight is exhausting.

I by no means nail it. The final time I used to be in Bristol I forgot a hair brush and a jacket. (Bless the hair and make-up group for serving to me clear up half of that drawback). The time earlier than that, I managed to pack a crusty tube of toothpaste, however left my toothbrush again in Los Angeles. (Do you know that the “dental kits” out there at enterprise accommodations final for about three brushings earlier than principally disintegrating?). None of this was an enormous deal. Options have been available, and there is all the time someplace to purchase what you are lacking. However I nonetheless felt like such a clod. Like if I had taken only a second longer to extra completely assess the state of affairs then all the things would have been excellent. I’d have received packing!

I usually really feel the identical method about my lineups. Besides these outcomes are onerous and quick, not theoretical. Hindsight is, in fact, all the time 20/20. It is tough, although, to not beat your self up after the very fact. Irrespective of what number of conditions I used to be proper about (Christian Kirk OVER 53.5 receiving yards), I cringe fascinated by the whiffs (Josh Dobbs UNDER 16 fantasy factors). If solely I had executed a greater job of surveying the info then, possibly, my emotions would have guided me to a extra correct determination.

Typically, nonetheless, there are simply too many issues to trace. Or the information that appeared essentially the most related nonetheless mattered, however simply not as a lot as I had initially anticipated. For instance, I knew that Josh Dobbs was the QB2 in dashing yards per sport and that the Saints had allowed the second-most dashing yards to opposing quarterbacks. The info have been clear. My emotions weren’t. When that occurs (and it does each week) the one selection is to notice the brand new info and prepare for the following journey, as flawed as it might be.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals: When you’re in search of imperfect journeys, look no additional than Murray’s. The 26-year-old suited up for the primary time in 11 months this previous Sunday. There was some rust — significantly from an aerial perspective — however Murray’s trademark wheels have been on full show. Ripping off 33 dashing yards (and, thereby, recording his seventh straight wholesome sport of 30+ dashing yards), Murray appeared 1,000% again to well being. His 17 fantasy factors ranked twelfth on the place on the shut of Week 10.

Murray averaged 20 fantasy factors per sport in 2022. These numbers would make him a top-five fantasy play in 2023. With out DeAndre Hopkins in tow, a full rebound turns into tougher … however not not possible. Murray peppered Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson a complete of 15 occasions, connecting with each receivers for lengthy positive factors. Elevated reps might definitely result in a lift in effectivity and field-stretching. In the meantime, Murray’s reference to Trey McBride appeared forward of schedule, because the second-year tight finish led the group in targets (9) and completed with a 8-131-0 stat line.

Pair a progressing passing sport with Murray’s electrical dashing means and the dual-threat QB deserves top-10 consideration heading into Week 11. Accidents have prevented the Texans from rounding into constant type. It is not the best matchup, however in what initiatives to be a high-scoring sport (the 47.5 whole is tied with the Raiders/Dolphins and Bears/Lions as highest on the slate), Murray figures to flirt with these aforementioned 20 fantasy factors on Sunday.

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: Being the exception to the rule has lengthy made Henry a fantasy star. From his bodily instruments to his longevity, Henry has supplied managers with an elite flooring. Extra particularly, Henry’s late-season effectivity has provided traders safety throughout essentially the most essential weeks of the faux soccer season. This yr, although, the King appears to (possibly) be operating out of gasoline. The virtually 30-year-old averaged 4.3 yards per carry earlier than the Titans Week 7 bye. Since then, nonetheless, his yards per carry has steadily decreased (4.6 YPC, 4.4 YPC, 2.2 YPC), leading to a median of 4.0 yards per carry over the previous three weeks.

Moreover regarding has been a dip in Henry’s quantity. The Alabama alum has averaged over 20 carries per sport each season since (and together with) 2019. The truth is, he was the RB1 in carries per contest (21.8/gm) in 2022. However this go-around Henry is logging 16.4 totes per contest (RB4). A part of the decline may be attributed to Tyjae Spears’ elevated involvement. The rookie’s snaps have inched upward, as he is at the moment managing a complete snap share of 52% (to Henry’s 55%). Curiously, for the reason that bye, these percentages are flipped with Henry registering a snap share of 45% and Spears recording 61% of the group’s snaps.

In the end, Henry’s quantity (particularly as in comparison with the remainder of the sphere) continues to buoy his inventory. But a possible slowing down is one thing that fantasy managers ought to proceed to trace. Henry attracts a lower than favorable matchup at Jacksonville (3.8 YPC allowed) this weekend. Fantasy traders ought to brace for a less-than-vintage outing; assume low-end RB1/high-end RB2.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers passing sport could also be in meltdown mode, however Pittsburgh’s dashing assault has some juice. The backfield cooked to the tune of 5.5+ yards per carry in back-to-back efforts. Jaylen Warren’s contemporary legs have been a good portion of the bottom sport’s success. Recording double-digit carries in Weeks 9 and 10, Warren has managed top-15 fantasy RB numbers and 189 whole dashing yards over his previous two outings.

Putting a workload stability between Najee Harris and Warren has been a irritating endeavor for fantasy managers. Nonetheless, each backs look like thriving when close to a 50/50 break up. Warren registered 34 makes an attempt (6.8 per sport) and three.6 yards per rush over the primary 5 video games of 2023. These numbers jumped to 37 makes an attempt (9.25 per sport) and 6.5 yards per rush over the 4 video games after the group’s Week 6 bye. Warren’s elevated involvement (52% snap share final week) has helped Harris stabilize his personal effectivity (over 4.3+ YPC in every of his previous two video games) and subsequent manufacturing (15+ fantasy factors over his final two efforts).

The fantasy gods have, in fact, offered a burdensome matchup on the Browns this Sunday. Cleveland has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy factors to opposing RBs during the last 4 weeks. Nonetheless, Gus Edwards and (the extra explosive) Keaton Mitchell each managed to seek out the top zone versus the Browns in Week 10. As such, Harris and Warren provide optimistic fantasy managers low-end RB2/high-end flex enchantment heading into the weekend.

Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Headlining waiver wire columns web-wide, Chandler had himself a sport final Sunday. With Cam Akers (Achilles) executed for the yr, Chandler was anticipated to see extra motion because the Vikings RB2 in Week 10. And he did. Much more. Alexander Mattison’s exit within the third quarter (concussion) definitely contributed to Chandler’s 15-touch day, however the second-year again was lots concerned forward of halftime, registering 5 totes to Mattison’s 4.

If Mattison fails to clear the concussion protocol, Chandler figures to be in line for one more 15+ touches in Week 11. Even when Mattison does return, the North Carolina product seems to have carved out a job for himself, significantly when noting Minnesota’s lack of operating again depth (Kene Nwangwu, Myles Gaskin, and Dewayne McBride).

The Vikings’ run sport definitely lacks effectivity (3.3 YPC) however Josh Dobbs’ mobility ought to open up holes for the speedy again. Only a few of these might end in some huge positive factors versus a Broncos protection that is coming off a brief week and permitting essentially the most fantasy factors to opposing RBs (and allowed 179 dashing yards to the Payments backfield on Monday evening). Fantasy managers must control Mattison’s standing whereas talking into existence a top-25 fantasy outing for Chandler.

Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers: Keep in mind when the fantasy group was questioning if Thielen’s wild top-of-the season manufacturing was sustainable? Seems … it is not. After recording 4 touchdowns between Weeks 2 and 6, the 33-year-old has failed to seek out the top zone since Carolina’s Week 8 bye.

Coincidentally that was when Thomas Brown took over because the Panthers’ playcaller. The outcome has not been optimistic. For the group, or for Thielen. The previous Viking’s targets, catches, yards, scores and fantasy factors have all dipped since Brown was handed the clipboard. Thielen’s appears went from 10.4 per contest to 9. His receptions dropped to six.3 from 9.4. Moreover, he is posted a complete of 143 yards over his previous three video games, which stings when noting he registered 145 yards in Week 3 alone.

The stress is, clearly, on in Carolina. Frank Reich might reclaim the group’s playcalling duties instantly. Even when that occurs, Thielen’s theoretical bounceback most likely will not occur till after Week 11. The Cardiac Cats are internet hosting the Cowboys on Sunday. Even with out Trevon Diggs, the Dallas secondary has remained stingy, permitting the second-fewest fantasy factors to opposing huge receivers. Thielen’s quantity makes him onerous to sit down, however fantasy managers ought to brace for middling WR2 numbers on Sunday.

Jayden Reed, WR, Inexperienced Bay Packers: Whereas everybody else remains to be ready on the Christian Watson breakout, me and Jordan Love appear to be following Jayden Reed’s emergence. Drafted by the Packers within the second spherical, the Chicago-area native has quietly materialized as a flex-worthy fantasy choice. The rookie has drawn 18 targets (simply 4 fewer than Romeo Doubs and Watson, who’ve 22 every) over the previous 4 weeks. He is additionally led the group in receiving yards, recording 207 for the reason that Packers Week 6 bye.

A crisp route runner with above-average pace and spectacular after-the-catch means, Reed has been fantastically environment friendly. Deployed primarily out of the slot, the previous Spartan has transformed 15 of these aforementioned 18 appears, gaining Love’s belief and providing the QB much-needed stability.

That connection, and the safety it seems to offer Love, figures to go far when the Packers host the Chargers. Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-most fantasy factors to huge receivers and simply gave up 333 receiving yards to the Lions. As three-point underdogs, the Packers’ sport script figures to see Love throwing it, supplying the rookie with ample alternatives to report one other flex-worthy fantasy displaying.

Daniel Bellinger, TE, New York Giants: The Giants’ state of affairs is grim. Exterior of Saquon Barkley, the fantasy choices are decidedly (no pun meant) slim. However the tight finish place all the time requires a mining of kinds. Whereas Daniel Bellinger is way from a positive factor (ahem, Lawrence Cager TD), he did lead the G-Males in receiving, accounting for 40% of Tommy DeVito’s passing yards in Week 10. That is solely 34 yards. But, it is a (relative to the remainder of the offense) brilliant spot that New York can try to amplify and develop.

With Darren Waller on IR, Bellinger has drawn three targets in back-to-back video games whereas recording a snap share of 83 p.c. Had been the Giants to coax extra throws out of DeVito, Bellinger’s numbers might simply enhance. That appears solely believable heading into Week 11, because the Giants are 9.5 underdogs at Washington. The Commandeers gave up a rating to Hunter Henry in Week 9 and 5 of 6 balls to Seattle’s trio of TEs in Week 10. A sleeper within the purest sense, Bellinger is that this week’s desperation dart throw.

Observe Liz on social @LizLoza_FF

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